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Amerikos islamistinės dilemos sprendimas: Pamokos iš Pietų ir Pietryčių Azijos

Šadi Hamidas
JAV. pastangas skatinti demokratiją Artimuosiuose Rytuose jau seniai paralyžiavo „islamistinė dilema“: teoriškai, mes norime demokratijos, bet, praktikoje, baiminamasi, kad islamistinės partijos bus pagrindinės naudos iš bet kokio politinio atsivėrimo. Tragiškiausias to pasireiškimas buvo Alžyro žlugimas 1991 ir 1992, kai JAV tylėjo, o ištikimai pasaulietinė kariuomenė atšaukė rinkimus po to, kai islamistų partija laimėjo parlamento daugumą. Visai neseniai, the Bush administration backed away from its “freedom agenda” after Islamists did surprisingly well in elections throughout region, including in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinian territories.
But even our fear of Islamist parties—and the resulting refusal to engage with them—has itself been inconsistent, holding true for some countries but not others. The more that a country is seen as vital to American national security interests, the less willing the United States has been to accept Islamist groups having a prominent political role there. However, in countries seen as less strategically relevant, and where less is at stake, the United States has occasionally taken a more nuanced approach. But it is precisely where more is at stake that recognizing a role for nonviolent Islamists is most important, ir, here, American policy continues to fall short.
Throughout the region, the United States has actively supported autocratic regimes and given the green light for campaigns of repression against groups such as the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the oldest and most influential political movement in the region. In March 2008, during what many observers consider to be the worst period of anti-Brotherhood repression since the 1960s, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice waived a $100 million congressionally mandated reduction of military aid to Egypt. The situation in Jordan is similar. The Bush administration and the Democratic congress have hailed the country as a “model” of Arab reform at precisely the same time that it has been devising new ways to manipulate the electoral process to limit Islamist representation, and just as it held elections plagued by widespread allegations of outright fraud
and rigging.1 This is not a coincidence. Egypt and Jordan are the only two Arab countries that have signed peace treaties with Israel. Moreover, they are seen as crucial to U.S. efforts to counter Iran, stabilize Iraq, and combat terrorism.