ISLAMISKA RÖRELSER OCH DEN DEMOKRATISKA PROCESSEN I ARABÄRVÄRDEN: Exploring the Gray Zones

During the last decade, Islamist movements have established themselves as major political players in the Middle East. Together with the governments, Islamist movements, moderate as well as radical, will determine how the politics of the region unfold in the foreseeable future. Th ey have shown the ability not only to craft messages with widespread popular appeal but also, and most importantly, to create organizations with genuine social bases and develop coherent political strategies. Other parties,

by and large, have failed on all accounts.

Th e public in the West and, särskilt, the United States, has only become aware of the importance of Islamist movements after dramatic events, som revolutionen i Iran och mordet på president Anwar al-Sadat i Egypten. Uppmärksamheten har varit mycket större sedan terrorattackerna i september 11, 2001. Som ett resultat, Islamistiska rörelser anses allmänt vara farliga och fientliga. Även om en sådan karaktärisering är korrekt när det gäller organisationer i den radikala änden av det islamistiska spektrumet, som är farliga på grund av deras villighet att ta till urskillningslöst våld för att nå sina mål, det är inte en korrekt beskrivning av de många grupper som har avstått från eller undvikit våld. Eftersom terroristorganisationer utgör en omedelbar

hot, dock, beslutsfattare i alla länder har ägnat de våldsamma organisationerna oproportionerlig uppmärksamhet.

Det är de vanliga islamistiska organisationerna, inte de radikala, that will have the greatest impact on the future political evolution of the Middle East. Th e radicals’ grandiose goals of re-establishing a caliphate uniting the entire Arab world, or even of imposing on individual Arab countries laws and social customs inspired by a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam are simply too far removed from today’s reality to be realized. Th is does not mean that terrorist groups are not dangerous—they could cause great loss of life even in the pursuit of impossible goals—but that they are unlikely to change the face of the Middle East. Mainstream Islamist organizations are generally a diff erent matter. Th ey already have had a powerful impact on social customs in many countries, halting and reversing secularist trends and changing the way many Arabs dress and behave. And their immediate political goal, to become a powerful force by participating in the normal politics of their country, is not an impossible one. It is already being realized in countries such as Morocco, Jordanien, and even Egypt, which still bans all Islamist political organizations but now has eighty-eight Muslim Brothers in the Parliament. Politik, not violence, is what gives mainstream Islamists their infl uence.