demokracia, Terrorism and American Policy in the Arab World

F. Gregory Gause

The United States has embarked upon what President Bush and Secretary of State Rice has called a “generational challenge” to encourage political reform and democracy in the Arab world. The Bush Administration and other defenders of the democracy campaign contend that the push for Arab democracy is not only about spreading American values, but also about insuring American security. They hypothesize that as democracy grows in the Arab world, anti-American terrorism from the Arab world will decline. Therefore, the promotion of democracy inthe Arab world is not only consistent with American security goals in the area, but necessary to achieve those goals.
Two questions present themselves in considering this element of the “Bush Doctrine” in the Arab world: 1) Is there a relationship between terrorism and democracy such that the more democratic a country becomes, the less likely it is to produce terrorists and terrorist groups? Inými slovami, is the security rationale for democracy promotion in the Arab world based on a sound premise?; a 2) What kind of governments would likely be generated by democratic elections in Arab countries? Boli by ochotní spolupracovať so Spojenými štátmi na dôležitých politických cieľoch na Blízkom východe?, nielen pri udržiavaní demokracie, ale aj pri
arabsko-izraelský, Bezpečnosť v Perzskom zálive a problémy s ropou?
Tento dokument sa bude zaoberať týmito dvoma otázkami. Zistilo sa, že existuje len málo empirických dôkazov spájajúcich demokraciu s absenciou alebo obmedzením terorizmu. Kladie si otázku, či by demokracia znížila motívy a príležitosti skupín ako al-Káida, ktoré sú proti demokracii z náboženských aj praktických dôvodov. Skúma nedávne trendy v arabskej verejnej mienke a voľbách, k záveru, že zatiaľ čo arabská verejnosť veľmi podporuje demokraciu, democratic elections in Arab states are likely to produce Islamist governments which would be much less likely to cooperate with the United States than their authoritarian predecessors.

Filed Under: AlžírskoEgyptOdporúčanéHamasBratstvo & WestJordanmoslimské bratstvoPalestíneSpojené štáty & Európe

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